Senior Iranian officials are preparing for potential military conflict, believing the current ceasefire with Israel will collapse, according to an assessment by ISW-CTP released on October 1st, 2025. This comes as Iran faces a severe water and energy crisis, exemplified by the Karaj Dam's drastically reduced reserves. The Karaj Dam's water reserves have fallen from 111 million cubic meters in September 2024 to 28 million cubic meters in September 2025, rendering it unable to generate electricity for Tehran and leaving it only 15 percent full. This dam is one of five supplying the capital with drinking water. ISW-CTP assessed in August 2025 that the regime faces significant challenges in addressing the water crisis due to mismanagement and unsustainable development. Senior Iranian military commanders have been observed inspecting military and air defense units across the country, indicating a state of readiness. This preparation for conflict is occurring against a backdrop of domestic challenges, as the regime's inability to meet basic citizen needs, such as water and electricity, could fuel public frustration and instability. Previously, on September 30th, Iraqi National Security Advisor Qasim al Araji stated that Iraq would take "all necessary measures" to prevent Israel from using its airspace to attack Iran. The United States reimposed sanctions on 44 Iranian entities on October 1st, 2025, between 3:37 PM and 5:37 PM UTC, aiming to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. These sanctions were a reimposition of previously lifted restrictions. The move occurred amid heightened regional tensions and follows Iran's Expediency Council's conditional agreement on Combating the Financing of Terrorism (CFT) measures earlier on October 1st. The U.S. also reinforced its commitment to Qatar with a presidential decree signed earlier on October 1st.
