Analyst Jason M. Brodsky stated on X between 12:16 AM and 12:46 AM UTC on December 22, 2025, that he highly doubts Iran would launch a preemptive direct military attack on Israel despite Israeli officials' growing worries over Tehran's rebuilding of its missile program, according to Axios and NBC reports. Brodsky, in a post at https://x.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/2002894562734534909, cited a risk-ready U.S. President Donald Trump, Israel's changed security doctrine demonstrated over the summer, and Iran's current domestic weaknesses as reasons it would be suicidal for the regime. He quoted the Axios and NBC reports noting fears among some Tel Aviv officials of a preemptive Iranian strike. This assessment follows Axios reporter Barak Ravid's earlier coverage of an Israeli warning to the Trump administration over an IRGC missile exercise that could prepare a surprise attack on Israel, as shared in the prior reporting window.
