Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado is the top candidate on prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi for the Nobel Peace Prize, according to information circulating on October 10th, 2025, between 2:05 AM and 5:05 AM UTC. Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms, grassroots humanitarian networks formed during the 2023 civil war, are ranked second, while Yulia Navalnaya, widow of Alexei Navalny and a prominent figure in the movement for Russian democracy, is listed third. These markets are seen as indicators, though the Nobel Committee's final decision is made by a five-person panel and can sometimes favor lesser-known individuals or groups. The selection process is not transparent, making prediction markets an imperfect gauge of the eventual outcome.
