Meteorologist Ben Noll forecasted a moderate-strength El Niño most likely to develop by summer due to warming waters in the equatorial Pacific, influencing global temperatures, moisture availability, and humidity, as stated in posts on X between approximately 3:15 AM and 5:45 AM UTC on February 15, 2026. The ocean-atmosphere system shows El Niño-like coupling starting around May, indicated by rising air spreading across the Pacific, which will bring global weather impacts aligned with El Niño, according to Ben Noll's X posts at https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2022742659862073582 and https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2022742655160258927. Regional effects include fewer clouds and more dryness from Indonesia to Australia during the upcoming Southern Hemisphere winter, a hefty signal for spring warmth in the United States, and high summer heat across Europe, per additional posts in the same thread. As La Niña fades, precipitation patterns will change, with more rain expected in drought areas like Florida but persistent dryness in the Intermountain West raising serious fire season concerns, Ben Noll stated at https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2022742673946476650. A strengthening subtropical jet stream from warming Pacific waters may enhance severe weather and tornado activity in the central and southern United States, as noted at https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2022742669227888738. In the Atlantic, El Niño's harsh winds may reduce hurricane activity overall, though warm Gulf waters could raise storm risks near land, and the warmest waters compared to average may occur in the subtropics leading to more atmospheric stability, according to the posts at https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2022742664576381350.
