Super Typhoon Ragasa intensified beyond model predictions on September 21st, 2025, with a drifting buoy near its eye recording an unconfirmed sea level pressure of 900.3 hPa around 08Z. The storm, also designated NandoPH, is expected to impact the Babuyan Islands between Monday late morning and evening, with TCWS #5 anticipated. Ragasa is forecast to strengthen further over the next 24 hours, potentially enhancing the southwest monsoon over Luzon and parts of central Philippines. Further intensity estimates from Automated Deep Tropical Cyclone (ADT) suggested wind speeds of 143 knots at 14:00Z, while the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimated 145 knots at 12Z. Ten-minute average intensities from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), PAGASA, and the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) were 100, 110, and 120 knots, respectively. PAGASA has warned of a high risk of storm surges exceeding 2.5 meters over the Babuyan Islands and northern Luzon, urging residents to complete preparations immediately. Ragasa is projected to bring heavy rainfall, with over 400 mm expected in parts of Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, and Ilocos Region, and over 250 mm in Mindoro and southwestern Central Luzon. Metro Manila may experience around 100 mm of rainfall. The storm is also expected to threaten Hong Kong and Macau on Wednesday morning, passing within 150 km south of the cities, with ECMWF model runs predicting a sea level pressure below 910 hPa. Widespread storm force winds, and potentially hurricane force winds, are likely to impact these cities, leading to suspensions of work and classes. Storm surges exceeding 2.5 meters above normal tides may also occur along the coast of Guangdong, particularly in low-lying regions like Macau.
