Super Typhoon Ragasa is showing serious concerns for Hong Kong and mainland China, with the 06z ECMWF run indicating the storm could reach 898 millibars just offshore, according to an update from the IPTCWC Director on September 21st, 2025, at 7:39 PM UTC. The storm, also designated NandoPH, has intensified beyond initial predictions, with unconfirmed sea level pressure readings near its eye reaching 900.3 hPa around 08Z on September 21st. Automated Deep Tropical Cyclone (ADT) estimates at 14:00Z suggested wind speeds of 143 knots, while the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimated 145 knots at 12Z. Ten-minute average intensities from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), PAGASA, and the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) were 100, 110, and 120 knots, respectively. The storm is forecast to maintain significant strength with low shear and high relative humidity, though structural factors and dry air will influence its intensity as it approaches land. Ragasa is expected to impact the Babuyan Islands between Monday late morning and evening, with PAGASA anticipating TCWS #5. The typhoon is forecast to strengthen further over the next 24 hours, potentially enhancing the southwest monsoon over Luzon and parts of central Philippines. PAGASA has warned of a high risk of storm surges exceeding 2.5 meters over the Babuyan Islands and northern Luzon. Heavy rainfall is also projected, with over 400 mm expected in parts of Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, and Ilocos Region, and over 250 mm in Mindoro and southwestern Central Luzon. Metro Manila may experience around 100 mm of rainfall. Ragasa is projected to threaten Hong Kong and Macau on Wednesday morning, passing within 150 km south of the cities. ECMWF model runs predict a sea level pressure below 910 hPa for these areas. Widespread storm force winds, and potentially hurricane force winds, are likely to impact Hong Kong and Macau, leading to possible suspensions of work and classes. Storm surges exceeding 2.5 meters above normal tides may also occur along the coast of Guangdong, particularly in low-lying regions like Macau.
