Hurricane Melissa has an 84 percent chance of intensifying into a Category 5 storm before making landfall in Jamaica, according to the latest Google model, with the strongest 10 percent of ensemble members suggesting winds could peak around 180 mph. This development occurred between 12:47 AM and 1:15 AM UTC on October 26th, as the storm continues its approach towards the island. Favorable environmental conditions are contributing to the storm's potential for rapid intensification, according to meteorologist Webber Weather. These factors include a northerly shear vector, deep-layer positive storm relative helicity (+SRH), and weak inertial stability, which are working together to create a favorable vortex structure. While the environment may not appear conducive to rapid intensification at first glance, subtle factors support this potential. Earlier in the reporting window, at approximately 12:46 AM UTC on October 26th, unmanned aircraft systems deployed by NOAA42 measured an average wind speed of 146 knots at 500 meters above ground level in Hurricane Melissa, as reported by meteorologist Xiaoqian Wu. Strong turbulence within the eyewall is reportedly affecting data collection. This measurement follows an earlier reading at 11:47 PM UTC on October 25th, where NOAA 42 measured an extrapolated pressure of 970.8 hPa with peak flight-level winds of 97 knots, estimated to translate to approximately 85 knots at the surface. All airports in Jamaica were scheduled to close at 9 PM local time on October 25th in anticipation of the storm's impact.
