The populist centre-left ANO party has won the Czech Republic's parliamentary election with 35% of the vote, leading to the incumbent centre-right coalition losing its majority, according to an initial summary released on October 4th, 2025. The election results indicate that ANO will need to form a coalition, with potential partners including protest parties like the far-right SPD and hard-right Motoriste. Reports suggest that any ANO-led coalition may be fragile, composed of parties described as MAGA-like (Motoriste), pro-Russia (SPD), libertarian (Svobodní), and minor far-extreme entities (PRO and Trikolora). ANO is expected to be the most policy-moderate within such a coalition, with fringe parties potentially driving domestically-focused culture war issues. In terms of foreign policy, ANO is anticipated to maintain a moderately pro-NATO stance within the European mainstream, while coalition partners may rhetorically advocate for peace talks and appeasement. China policy is not expected to be a significant issue, with national security institutions likely to maintain a hawkish line, potentially influenced by Czech President Petr Pavel. Positive developments highlighted include the collapse of the Communist and Socialist coalition, which failed to meet the 5% threshold, securing only 4.5% of the vote. The expected coalition setup is also anticipated to increase the influence of President Petr Pavel, who sets strategic policy boundaries concerning EU and NATO membership, support for Ukraine, and defense budgets. Furthermore, pro-Russian and pro-Chinese elements in Czech politics, including the pro-Russian far-right SPD party which dropped to below 8% from an expected 10-12%, have reportedly suffered a significant setback.
