Analysis published by The Economist suggests that if Arab states are unable to exert pressure on Israel, they may turn to pressuring the United States, seeking more formal security guarantees. This potential shift comes as Gulf states consider leveraging their economic ties, such as planned investments and arms purchases, against the U.S. if it does not balance its alliances. The analysis indicates that Gulf states, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE, which are major recipients of U.S. arms, could seek weapons from alternative suppliers. Such a move would risk diminishing American influence in the region and could provoke significant backlash from the U.S. The Economist posits that the U.S. faces a critical choice between its alliance with Israel and its relationships with oil-rich Arab states. This strategic consideration follows recent regional developments, including condemnation of Israeli actions in Gaza by leaders of Jordan and Qatar, and a summit of Arab states and the Organization of Islamic Countries that adopted a statement to coordinate efforts to suspend Israeli companies at the United Nations. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to visit Qatar on September 16th, 2025, a visit that may be influenced by these evolving regional dynamics.
