Secret services have warned that China could invade Taiwan as early as 2026, a potential conflict scenario linked to anticipated political instability in the United States under a Donald Trump presidency. The specific timing of this potential invasion is contingent on the perceived weakening of American resolve and capacity to respond. This intelligence assessment, which emerged during the reporting window, suggests a strategic window for China's military action could open in 2026. The rationale behind this potential timeline is rooted in the assessment that a period of internal U.S. political turmoil following the 2024 election, and potentially during the initial years of a second Trump administration, might create an opportune moment for Beijing to act. While the sources of this intelligence are not explicitly detailed, the implication is that various global intelligence agencies are monitoring China's military posturing and rhetoric towards Taiwan. The warning underscores ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific region and the strategic importance of Taiwan.
