Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service issued a warning on January 2, 2026, stating the Kremlin is preparing a large-scale provocation involving human casualties to disrupt U.S.-mediated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, with the expected timing on the eve or during Orthodox Christmas celebrations in a religious building or symbolically important site in Russia or occupied Ukrainian territories. The service, known as SZRU, described the operation as complex, following alleged attacks on President Vladimir Putin's residence, and predicted Russian special services would stage an armed incident using wreckage of Western-made attack drones transported from combat lines to falsify Ukrainian involvement, according to the statement shared during the reporting window from 9:15 AM to 10:15 AM UTC. SZRU noted this tactic aligns with past Russian special services methods, including domestic incidents, and urged media to verify Kremlin materials and avoid spreading disinformation. Separately, the U.S. State Department reiterated its recommendation for Americans to leave Russia immediately due to escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war, citing risks of arrests, terrorist threats, martial law in border regions, and limited consular support, as reported by Fox News in a post during the same period. The warning listed additional concerns including arbitrary law enforcement, communication monitoring, financial restrictions, and advised against social media use, noting the U.S. Embassy in Moscow operates with reduced staff. Former U.S. national security aide Philip Gordon argued in The New York Times that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky should reject the Trump-brokered peace plan, stating its security guarantee modeled on NATO's Article 5 is too weak, allowing U.S. withdrawal unless an attack is significant, intentional, and prolonged, according to an X post citing the article.
