On February 26, 2026, at 02:26 UTC, the Supernova+ intelligence channel leaked details of the Kremlin's 'Cold Anchor' plan, introducing a secret timeline to de facto end active hostilities in Ukraine by May 15, 2026, without declaring victory or defeat, following the failure of the prior May 2025 protocol's August 22, 2025 deadline, according to the leaked documents. The plan establishes a 'silence regime' starting March 1, 2026, limiting artillery to ≤100 mm and strikes to military infrastructure; a total air strike ban below 49° N latitude from April 15, 2026; and a 30-km buffer zone with Turkish/Indian observers by May 15, 2026. Frontline measures include daily shelling capped at ≤30 shells, UAV strikes reduced to 30% of 2024 levels with fuel restricted to defense, and Ukrainian strikes limited to 60 km depth, as detailed in the Supernova+ report citing internal Kremlin and Russian Ministry of Defense sources. The August 2025 protocol failed due to Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada not ratifying neutral status on August 18, 2025 (247 votes short of 300), October 2025 escalations involving Russian strikes on Ukrainian power plants and Western-approved Ukrainian hits on Tu-22M3s at Engels-2, and a December 2025 truce moratorium until March 2026 Rada elections, per the leak. Financial provisions in Russia's 2026 budget omit an 'SMO' item but reserve 2.1 trillion ₽ under account 0505077 for unforeseen defense; combat losses over 1,200 monthly trigger 'economy mode' freezing contract soldiers' salaries. Leaked Secret Order No. 117/2025 from December mandates renaming 'SMO' documents to 'Border Protection Operation' from February 1, 2026, phasing out public 'SMO' usage by May 1, 2026, to render the conflict 'invisible' domestically. The plan anticipates spring 2026 accumulation of UAVs and shells pending Rada elections and US campaigns, extending 18 months to November 2026 for a potential frozen conflict; a December 1, 2026 'point of no return' could prioritize economy if buffer territories are not secured, according to Supernova+ summary of Kremlin discussions.
