Ukrainian Air Force reported on September 29th that enemy drones in the Chernihiv region were moving towards the Kyiv region, with specific timing not provided within the reporting window. Separately, Igor Strelkov, a Russian commentator, stated in a social media post on September 29th that Transnistria is likely to be lost by Russia within weeks due to its inability to provide military assistance to the region. Strelkov cited Russia's failure to break through to Odessa and take Nikolaev, as well as the Russian fleet being pushed back to the eastern coast of the Black Sea, as key factors. Strelkov elaborated that Russia lacks the capability to protect its garrison, Russian citizens, military pensioners, and an ammunition warehouse in Transnistria. He also highlighted the strategic importance of railway and road crossings through the Dniester River for potential Western intervention in Ukraine. Strelkov suggested that if Western forces expedite their troop deployment, Transnistria could be eliminated within days, with operations likely conducted from both Moldova and Ukraine. Strelkov expressed doubt that the Russian Federation would engage in a large-scale war with NATO over Transnistria, stating Russia is unprepared for such a conflict. He noted that Russia is not mobilized and lacks adequate preparation, contrasting this with continuous holidays and sporting events. He also mentioned refugees from Kursk and Belgorod regions are being drawn deeper into Russia due to ongoing raids. Strelkov concluded that Transnistria will likely be left to its own devices and "crushed by the enemy."
